Borrell Associates has released a new advertising report.  We asked Gordon Borrell what it means for the out of home industry and he said this: “Out of Home continues to defy the gravity that other forms of traditional media have been suffering.  It’s been a remarkable performer, both on the local and national side.  In some markets, OOH is actually gaining market share at the expense mostly of TV, radio, and Direct Mail.  Impressive stuff.”

WILLIAMSBURG, VA — Local digital advertising is growing nearly twice as fast as previously forecast, fueled by a dramatic reshuffling of the nation’s business landscape and surging demand for streaming video, according to new forecasts from Borrell Associates.

The findings are part of a sweeping new set of forecasts through 2030, following what Borrell says is one of the most extensive research and data-modeling initiatives in its 25-year history of tracking local advertising. The highlights:

• For 2026, Borrell projects 8.6% growth in local digital advertising; its previous forecast was 4.5%.
• For 2027, Borrell forecasts 6.7% growth in local digital; its prior estimate was 4.3%
• As a result, digital will claim 75% of local advertising by the end of next year, growing to 80% by 2030.

“We knew digital advertising was growing rapidly, but our research uncovered a much bigger shift than our earlier forecasts suggested,” said Corey Elliott, SVP of Local Market Intelligence at Borrell Associates. “Though traditional media companies will rake in more than $18 billion in digital ad revenue this year, it represents a fairly small share – 16% of the total digital pie. The pie is now growing faster, so their challenge will be to maintain market share by keeping up with the digital growth.”

Borrell’s forecasts put total U.S. local advertising expenditures at $155.6 billion in 2027, up 3.9% from 2026, with digital advertising growing 6.7% and purchases of traditional media advertising down 3.5%. The new forecast represents an upward revision from the previous estimate of 2.6% growth in total local advertising next year.

Surge in Local Online Video

Online video is the fastest-growing form of advertising. Borrell forecasts 10% growth in 2027, following 13.5% growth in 2026—nearly twice its previous estimate of 7.3%. That makes streaming video the largest among all 18 types of media, dethroning Search Engine Marketing (SEM), which has held that position since 2013.

Borrell’s definition of streaming video encompasses streaming television (CTV/OTT), YouTube, and video advertising on social media platforms, including Instagram and TikTok. Total expenditures are projected to reach $30.8 billion in 2027, rising to nearly $40 billion by 2030.

“This is perhaps one of the biggest takeaways for anyone on the sell side of the industry,’ said Gordon Borrell, CEO of Borrell Associates. “Digital video is a classic disruptor, creating an entirely new set of customers beyond that 8% or 9% of businesses that could afford to buy TV spots on the local station. Growth is coming from new- to-TV customers, those finally able to take advantage of the power of video advertising. The question is, who will get to them first and make it phenomenally easy for them to buy?”

A Great Reshuffling of Local Businesses

Borrell’s research reveals that the United States added approximately 1.6 million business establishments between 2020 and 2025, an increase of 15.5%, from 10.5 million to 12.1 million. Underlying that trend were some stunning figures. Borrell estimates 5.8 million business establishments closed in that period, creating a churn that favored service-oriented businesses over retailers.

Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other sources, Borrell found that information-sector establishments increased 49%, professional and business services grew 29%, and health and education increased 20%. By comparison, the combined retail, wholesale, and transportation sector grew just 4%. Borrell also found that the average private business became smaller, declining from 12.7 employees in 2019 to 11.3 in 2025—an 11% decrease.

“This is a good news, bad news story for media companies,” Elliott said. “There are millions more potential advertisers, but they’re increasingly smaller businesses concentrated in service industries. Reaching them requires a different approach to advertising sales.”

The key issue, Elliott added, is that “print, broadcast, and outdoor companies have relied heavily on local retailers, such as department stores, tire stores, florists, jewelers, and furniture stores. A much smaller universe of retailers exists in every market. That’s rendered their ad-prospecting obsolete. Traditional ad-tracking companies have many of them chasing the same small school of big fish in a shrinking pond.”

Traditional Media Declines Accelerate

While digital advertising grows, traditional local advertising continues to contract.

Borrell projects a 3.5% decline in traditional local advertising expenditures in 2027, following a 3.8% decline in 2026. Local newspaper advertising is projected to fall 12% in 2026, radio 4.5%, and broadcast television 4%. Direct mail is expected to remain flat. By 2030, digital advertising is projected to account for nearly 80% of all local advertising expenditures, compared with approximately 71% in 2025.

Extensive Research and New AI Access

The new forecasts reflect a comprehensive reassessment of advertising expenditures, business activity, and media classifications. The research draws on more than 1,700 documents from 833 organizations and covers 101 business categories across 3,143 U.S. counties. Borrell used more than 600 sources in its latest overhaul of local market advertising.

In tandem with the forecasts, Borrell has introduced an AI access point to its advertising intelligence through a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, allowing users to query market data through compatible AI platforms using natural-language questions. Details are available at borrell.ai.

November 11 Webinar

Borrell will present the findings in a free webinar at 11 am EST November 11. Register here.

About Borrell Associates

Established in 2001, Borrell Associates specializes in research, forecasting, and analysis of U.S. local advertising and marketing expenditures across U.S. markets, business categories, and media channels. Thousands of companies – from financial analysts to large Internet pureplay companies, trade associations, ad agencies, and media companies – subscribe to Borrell’s market-level data.