Autonomous cars are coming but they won’t happen soon. Here’s a summary of a talk by Chan Lieu of Venable, LLC at the Lookout2017 convention
- The case for autonomous cars rests on safety. 94% of crashes are due to driver error. 40,000 lives are lost a year.
- Car manufacturers are committed to producing an autonomous vehicle by 2021.
- Initial deployment will be in urban areas. 75% of cars will be autonomous by 2040. 95% of cars will be autonomous by 2070.
- There will be portions of the country – like rural areas – where autonomous cars don’t make sense.
Insider’s take: Lieu thinks it will take 25 years for autonomous cars to account for 75% of the US vehicle fleet. Insider thinks it will take longer than this. There are 263 million US cars. 17.5 million new cars sold in 2015. To get to Venable’s math you need to assume that almost 60% of all new cars sold are autonomous starting in 2021 despite a higher sticker price. Hybrid cars provide a nice comparison. Hybrid cars accounted for only 2% of US 2015 new car sales due in part to higher prices.
Insider thinks it will be the same with autonomous cars. Silicon Valley types will rush in but it will take a long, long time for the rest of us to be convinced.
Be sure to read Chan Lieu’s response to this post below in which he clarifies his comments.
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Thanks for the summary Dave. Just a few clarifying points. The projection of 75% of autos will be autonomous by 2040 comes from IEEE, not from Venable. You’re right that there isn’t widespread agreement. Moody’s has projects only 45% of autos will be autonomous come 2045. The other important aspect to consider is that AVs initially will likely be available via a shared fleet deployment, not via private ownership. If this really catches on (most likely in dense urban areas), then buying patterns may shift towards mobility as a service (available when I need it, on my terms), instead of acquiring an asset that sits unutilized for 92-94% of the time.