Vader Capital published a report titled Clear Channel Outdoor: Debt is a Massive Risk.  The analyst thinks the USA out of home industry is in decline.  We’ll quote the report:

According to IBISWorld, the US market size is $9.5 billion in 2022, which experienced 2.1% decline a year since 2017. I expect this decline to continue moving forward due to the rising internet penetration, rapid digitization, and the increasing focus on targeted marketing are among the key factors strengthening the growth of the market across the globe. 

Billboard Insider’s take:  Vader and IBISWorld have their facts wrong.  The US out of home industry is growing, not declining.  Look at the data below taken from the OAAA’s survey of members.

US Out of Home Advertising Revenues in millions.

2017 – $7,700

2018 – 8,050

2019 – 8,600

2020 – $6,074

2021 – $7,084

2022 – $8,600

Compound Annual Growth for 2017-2022:  2.2%

Source: OAAA Website

We suspect that IBISWorld and Vader looked at the out of home industry’s cyclical downturn in 2020 and concluded out of home was facing a long term decline.  Don’t confuse economic cycles with industry trends.  Advertising and out of home revenues are cyclical and will decline in a recession.  But growth in good times more than makes up for the recession years.  Out of home is a better value than other forms of advertising and is getting a boost from digital billboards and automated ad channels.  The US out of home industry has grown by 2.5% for the past 20 years, 2.5% for the past 10 years and 2.2% for the past 5 years.   The US out of home industry, like the US stock market, varies from year to year – but the long term trend is up.

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