Jean-Francois Decaux: The audience recovery is uncertain.

Jean-Francois Decaux, Co-CEO, JCDecaux

Jean-Francois Decaux’s comments on last seek’s JCDecaux earnings call highlighted the uncertainty as to how fast transit and airport advertising markets will recover from covid.  Here are two slides which illustrate the company’s predicament together with Jean-Francois Decaux’s comments.

Many JCDecaux’s transit markets haven’t recovered.

As of last week, you can see that the audience recovery is uncertain. One country is significantly above the mobility trend compared to the pre COVID-19…Belgium. Then Italy, Singapore, France and Germany are close to the 100% level i.e. above 90% but Spain, U.S., U.K. and Australia are far from the level they had before the crisis.

 

Airport revenues aren’t coming back any time soon.

Looking at the ACI numbers, air traffic was down 88.4% in Q2 2020 compared to the expected level of air traffic pre COVID-19. Q3 and Q4 2020 will not recover historical levels of audiences and will remain far from them.  It will take a long time before reaching this level. Some studies disclose a full recovery in air traffic in 2023, 2024 but future will tell. Everything depends on government decisions regarding lockdowns, borders being closed and quarantines being implemented.

Insider’s take:  It will take a covid vaccine for airport traffic and advertising to recover which means early 2021.   Subway and bus passenger traffic will return sooner if  a New York Times article suggesting public transportation is not a major source of covid transmission proves true.

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