eMarketer’s Behind the Numbers podcast talked about out of home this week.  The comments start at 24:40 of the podcast.

Analyst Nicole Perrin on first half 2020 out of home headwinds:

Being at home means that out of home activities are severely limited…Messaging in stadiums and ball fields, NBA games won’t happen.  Certainly there’s a lot of out of home messaging around the Olympics.  That won’t happen…Part of out of home spending has to do with commuting…bus ads, taxi ads, ads on the side of the streets…There aren’t commuters to absorb that advertising…other retail will be hard hit by this.  Entertainment…going to the movies…and restaurants.  Restaurants are big out of home spenders…

VP Forecasting Monica Peart on the projected decline in revenues for the first half of 2020:

For out of home, similar to what we saw for TV…22% at the worst case and around 16% at the less severe case…it’s most likely we will not be positive for the full year…And out of home has been really strong.  One thing to note about it as a category is that it tracks very closely to GDP growth…

Insider’s take: If you assume that out of home grew at 5% per annum for the first two months of 2020, then eMarketer is assuming that US out of home revenues are down 27% per annum from March-June in the best case scenario and 39% per annum from March-June in the worst case scenario.

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