McKinsey Partner Scott Nyquist takes a skeptical view of driverless cars in Why Driverless Cars Might Not Hit The Road So Fast.

Next time you hear someone say they think that we’ll all be driving driverless cars in 10 years remind yourself that the error rate on futuristic projections is immense.  Nyquist points out that electric vehicle adoption predictions have been off by 45-80%.

Anyone can make an expert prediction and very few experts back up their prediction wth their own money.

Nyquist sees three impediments to driverless cars.

• Federal, state and local regulations.  Government doesn’t move fast.
• Mapping requirements.  Driverless cars need maps which are accurate to less than an inch.  Mapping requirements mean driverless cars are likely to occur first in urban areas and later, or maybe never in remote areas.
• Americans say in opinion polls that they like autonomous vehicles but don’t want to pay extra for them.  Costs have slowed the adoption of electric vehicles.  Ditto for driverless cars.

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