Accretive Media CEO Craig Benner makes five predictions for 2021.
2021 is the year of calm and stability
With all the drama of 2020 and all the hot button issues which could create an explosive 2021, I predict an uncontroversial next 12 months. 2021 will be the year of healing. Critical industry-defining decisions will be pushed off, as marketers want to return to normalcy just as badly as consumers do. We will see shifts in communication strategies based on fundamental changes to consumer behavior (device fatigue leads to more OOH/DOOH/audio), but it won’t be this brave new world people are pontificating. The proverbial can will get kicked down the road to 2022 for all the juiciest topics (antitrust, IDFA/cookie elimination, privacy gulag, etc.). The industry is yearning for a taste of calm and stability, and we’ll get a version of it in 2021. Now is the time to come together.
Traditional Makes a Comeback
A successful vaccine, coupled with extreme device fatigue from the last year will lead to revitalized interest in more “traditional” formats such as OOH, DOOH, and audio. In fact, VIOOH’s annual State of the Nation report found U.S. marketers were planning to include programmatic DOOH in 51% of all digital campaigns in 2021, a figure unheard of a couple years ago. As data targeting and measurement within these formats advances, advertisers will truly start to realize their power when executed properly. Just look at the history behind the mobile ad growth. Consumption outpaced spend for a decade as we declared it the “year of mobile” – until we solved measurement and mobile spending exploded. Now consider the fact that consumers post-Covid will add to the existing 60%+ of their waking hours spent out of the home (70%+ pre-Covid). And compare that to the 4-5% of budgets historically spent on OOH. Big gap to close. Speaking of the year of mobile…
Identity is the new mobile
Similar to our 10 successive “Year of Mobile” from 2005-2015, we will have another “Year of Identity” with more players and still incomplete results. Because of this complexity and with so much political, financial, and practical capital at stake, I foresee Google delaying the third-party cookie phase out and Apple delaying IDFA culling. Although this push back will give the industry more time to define their anti-trust and identity strategies – spoiler alert – we still won’t have a widespread, industrywide solution. While a couple players who have real scaled data have legitimate solutions, disparate companies all continue to jockey for position, including agreeing on things as simple as the true definition of identity. It’s going to be fun and incredibly fascinating at the same time. Here’s to the next several “Years of Identity”!
Several COVID behaviors are here to stay
The general population, and the industry as an extension, will adopt several of the new behaviors we learned during the pandemic such as normalized remote work, AVOD explosion, and empathic messaging. These changes will create more efficiency and drive a new age of innovation. Change isn’t and shouldn’t be scary.
Consumer privacy is enforced
New legislation is passed outlawing all internet data in the US. As a result, the internet starts to look like 3am cable TV with a proliferation of cluttered, low value ads everywhere. I kid! In all seriousness, 2021 will see responsible consumer privacy finally enforced, allowing for more (and clearer) choice and control for consumers, which strengthens Facebook, Amazon, and Google immensely (not ideal for their anti-trust interests). It will also provide a couple openings for mid-tier independent players that have direct relationships with consumers to deliver unique offerings outside of the walled gardens.
What are your predictions for 2021. Let Insider know using the form below or email billboardinsider@gmail.com.
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