If you’re shaping projections for how the US economy will do in 2021 consider what Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs Head of Global Investment said on Exchanges at Goldman Sachs last week:
I think overall my broader view would be that while the economy is going through a much slower stretch it is sort of holding up and its not as sensitive to virus as restrictions as was the case earlier in 2020 especially in the Spring. That’s the current situation. As we get into the spring, beyond January/February we are expecting a strong recovery, nothing’s changed about that. Our overall forecast for 2021 if you take GDP is 6.4%, that is more than 2% points above the consensus of forecasters, that consensus is moving higher…the drivers of this are basically two things. The virus becomes significantly less of an issue partly for seasonal reasons as you get into the sprint temperature plays a role. And more importantly the vaccination…picks up and in the course of the second quarter we manage to generate herd immunity…
Insider’s take: If the economy grows by 6% in 2021 look for out of home to grow about about 10%. US out of home revenues were growing almost twice as fast as the US economy in the two years before covid. Insider expects that trend to continue when covid abates.